Shipments of a/c units and heat pumps fell in November 2025 compared to the same time last year, while furnaces saw modest year-over-year gains, according to the latest report from the Air-Conditioning, Heating & Refrigeration Institute.
The report also shows residential storage water heater shipments remained relatively stagnant in the same period.
The shipment totals are indicative of the overall soft demand in the residential cooling market. As Carrier CEO Dave Gitlin said when acknowledging the slowdown: “It goes without saying that in the second half of [2025], the [residential] business experienced significant weakness. And a key question is, what will this business do next year?”
Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps
Shipments of a/c units and heat pumps have once again plummeted. The following are the totals for November 2025 compared to the same time last year:
- Air conditioner units and air-source heat pumps: 379,470, down by 46.4% compared to 707,436
- Air conditioners only: 181,223, a decrease of 53.7% compared to 391,531
- Heat pumps only: 198,247, down 37.2% compared to 315,905
Stacked against October 2025’s shipment totals, about 8% more a/c and heat pump shipments were made compared to November. In the same vein, the a/c-only shipments from October to November decreased 11.3%, and heat pumps by 5.7%.
AHRI data shows this is the sixth consecutive month for both products to have lower year-to-date totals than in the same period last year.
Year-to-date totals compared to 2024 were:
- Air conditioners and heat pumps: 7.34 million, down 19.9% from 9.16 million
- Air conditioners only: 3.91 million, down 25.6% from 5.27 million
- Heat Pumps only: 3.43 million, down 12.1% from 3.89 million
Warm Air Furnaces
For November 2025, warm air furnace shipments were a mixed bag of ups and downs. The totals compared to November 2024 were:
- Gas warm air furnaces: 238,810 units, down by 8.4% compared to 260,657 units
- Oil warm air furnaces: 3,199 units, up by 9.5% from 2,921 units
About 2% more gas warm air furnaces were shipped in October 2025 than in November the same year. Roughly 12% more oil units were shipped in October than in November.
For year-to-date shipments, both types of units saw gains relative to the same time last year.
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- Gas Warm Air Furnaces: 2.98 million, up 4.4% from 2.85 million
- Oil Warm Air Furnaces: 28,741, up 6.6% from 26,949
Residential Storage Water Heaters
For November 2025, residential storage water heaters saw small decreases in shipments compared to November 2024.
- Residential gas storage water heaters: 318,129 units, down 0.2% from 318,773 units
- Residential electric storage water heaters: 369,530 units, down 2.5% from 378,925 units
More gas storage water heaters were shipped in October 2025 than November, though it was only about 1.3% more units. Similarly, 5.6% more electric storage water heaters were shipped in October than November.
Changes in year-to-date residential water heater shipments were just as minimal in November. The year-over-year totals are:
- Gas Residential Storage Water Heaters: 3.83 million, up 0.2% from 3.83 million
- Electric Residential Storage Water Heaters: 4.56 million, down 2% from 4.66 million
For more information, visit ahrinet.org.
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