Look around any service shop in America and you’ll notice the same pattern: The senior techs are seasoned pros with decades of experience, but they are also closer to retirement than their first day on the job. Meanwhile, the pipeline of young workers is too small to replace them. It’s a generational gap that threatens the future of the trades.
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the HVAC occupation is projected to add about 40,100 openings each year through 2034, largely to replace retirees and others leaving the workforce. Employment is expected to grow 8% from 2024 to 2034, faster than the average for all occupations.
Nathan Coker, operations manager of Stanfield Air Systems in Georgia, spoke recently to the Rotary Club of Madison County about that very challenge. He had seen the same aging workforce problem in his own company several years ago. He recognized that technicians in their fifties might not have too many years left of bending and twisting to reach awkward fittings or enduring long hours in sweltering attics or freezing rooftops. For the long-term health of his business, he knew he couldn’t just keep hiring from the same shrinking pool. He needed to start investing in talent development.
Six years ago, his team was scrambling to fill vacancies as older techs retired. Today, his average technician age is 26. That kind of transformation is rare, and it did not happen by accident. But it is achievable.
From Skeptic to Believer
Coker admits that when he first considered hiring teenagers, he was skeptical.
“If you had asked me in 2018, ‘Can somebody who is 18 years old be able to go into your home and fix your air conditioning system?’ I would say, ‘No, absolutely not,’” he recalled.
That changed in 2019 when he stopped by Madison County High School and was introduced to construction teacher Jake Slusher. Slusher was eager to showcase his students’ work and immediately saw the potential for a partnership. What began as a casual visit quickly grew into a pipeline through the high school, later strengthened by connections with the Madison County Chamber of Commerce.
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Out of that relationship came one of Coker’s most important hires, Ashton Hill, who was 17 at the time. Hill’s commitment was obvious from the start. While most teenagers spent Friday nights out with friends, Hill was in Coker’s office with a workbook open across the desk.
“He’d say, ‘Do you have just a couple extra minutes to go over this with me?’ And we would sit there until 6, 7, 8 o’clock at night,” Coker remembered.
Hill pushed to try service calls before graduation. Coker hesitated. Would customers trust someone so young? Hill persisted: “Just give me a shot.” When the time came, Coker did not send him to a stranger’s house. He called a longtime customer he trusted, explained the situation, and asked them to give Ashton a fair chance. The phone rang not long after: “I’ve never had a technician do the things that he does. He’s a keeper.”
Today, Hill is 24 years old and the company’s top technician. His story proves that with the right mentorship and determination, age is less important than attitude.
Building a Pipeline
Someone hearing Hill’s story might wonder about the practical side. What about liability? Insurance? Customer pushback? Those barriers can be managed. Apprentices at Stanfield Air Systems enter a structured training program where they learn step by step under the guidance of licensed technicians. Early on, that means shadowing service calls, studying manuals, and practicing core skills in a supervised setting. As they demonstrate competence, their responsibilities expand.
For Coker, building a pipeline is about more than filling today’s schedule. It begins with holding on to the experienced technicians he already has, because every departure means losing years of know-how and customer trust. His company leans on four core values — honesty, value, accountability, and compassion — and backs them up with real practices: rewarding performance, offering clear paths forward, and giving senior techs mentoring roles that validate their experience while passing knowledge to the next generation.
At the same time, Coker is intentional about developing future stars.
“We typically start high school students around $14 an hour,” he said. “At that point in time, when we hire a high school student, we look at it a little bit differently. We’re not hiring that student to do labor. We’re hiring that student to do a training program. When they come work for us, we’re not telling them to go out there and move concrete and do all the heavy lifting. We’re trying to train them for when they graduate high school, then we bring them in at a minimum of $18 an hour.”
That kind of setup tells young hires this is the start of a career, not just a stopgap job. Apprenticeships may not put dollars in a contractor’s pocket right away, but they build loyalty, reduce turnover, and create a steady pipeline.
National research backs this up. A U.S. Department of Labor summary of the American Apprenticeship Initiative found the median employer return on investment was 44.3% — every $100 invested returned $144.30 in benefits — and that 68% of employers achieved a positive net return within five years.
National data also show the potential: In July 2025, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a youth labor force participation rate of about 55% and a 10.8% unemployment rate among 16- to 24-year-olds. That means millions of young people are available for training pipelines if contractors take the lead.
It also speaks to a bigger reality: Many teenagers are worried about their futures. College is not the guaranteed path it once was, and the debt load can be crippling. What is needed is more practical skill development in K–12 so that a student who graduates on a Friday can step into a real career the following Monday. In this way, Coker is not just acting meaningfully for his company — he’s providing a vital answer to a societal need.
Educate the Community
Coker also knows that workforce development does not stop at the shop door. On a recent Friday morning, he stood at a podium at the Ila Restaurant in rural Georgia while Rotarians ate bacon and eggs. This is the same group that has built more than 1,000 handicap ramps for neighbors in need — a club clearly committed to service. Instead of talking to HVAC pros, he spoke to business owners, civic leaders, and educators, explaining how issues like federal refrigerant regulations and the growing influence of private equity are driving up costs and compromising service quality in the industry.
He then connected those challenges back to the workforce shortage, showing why it is even more important to invest locally in the next generation of technicians. His talk gave the audience one more way to think about making a difference: by helping young people see trades as a career. That kind of outreach does not just inform. It sparks energy for more good work and turns community leaders into allies. Community leaders often sit on boards, mentor students, or support school initiatives. His message may prompt them to push for more shop classes, career pathways, or internship opportunities in local schools. Those community leaders can see what Coker is doing for local youth, and they’ll be thinking of his company when they encounter promising young people looking for a career.
Clearing the Hurdles
Of course, training does take time and money. But consider what many companies already spend chasing techs from other shops, paying inflated wages, and dealing with constant turnover. For Coker, it was ultimately cheaper to grow his own.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the median annual wage for HVAC technicians was $59,810 in May 2024. Replacing one experienced technician can easily cost a third of that salary in turnover expenses.
In fact, Work Institute’s 2024 Retention Report (PDF) estimates U.S. employers spent nearly $900 billion in 2023 replacing employees who quit — money that could have been redirected into training and apprenticeship programs.
The costs of poaching talent are hidden but significant: sign-on bonuses, higher hourly rates, and the loss of loyalty when someone jumps again for a few dollars more. On the flip side, when you train apprentices in your own system, you are shaping them to fit your company’s standards from day one. They learn your way of doing things, build trust with your senior techs, and grow loyalty that is hard to buy later.
Smaller contractors may worry they cannot afford a formal training pipeline, but they can take the same first step Coker did. Start with one apprentice. The slow winter months, when service calls taper off, are ideal for training. Instead of paying technicians to sit idle or sending them home early, you can turn downtime into an investment in next year’s workforce.
That shift in mindset, seeing training not as a drain but as a reallocation of money you are already spending, is what makes the approach sustainable.
Lead the Solution
At the end of the day, contractors have two options. They can keep fighting over the same shrinking pool, or they can start building their own pipeline. By investing in young people and educating your community, you are not just solving a staffing problem. You are building a stronger business and a stronger town.
The shortage is real, but so is the solution. The next generation is out there, waiting for someone to believe in their potential. For Nathan Coker, that belief in the next generation paid off. It can for you, too.
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