HVAC Market Slowdown: Combined AC and Heat Pump Shipments Fall 14% YTD in 2025

HVAC Market Slowdown: Combined AC and Heat Pump Shipments Fall 14% YTD in 2025


Warm Air Furnaces 
U.S. shipments of gas warm air furnaces for September 2025 decreased 7.2%, to 281,001 units, compared to 302,746 units shipped in September 2024. Oil warm air furnace shipments increased 18.8%, to 4,013 units in September 2025, compared to 3,379 units shipped in September 2024. 

Year-to-date U.S. shipments of gas warm air furnaces increased 8%, to 2,497,227 units, compared to 2,312,214 units shipped during the same period in 2024. Year-to-date U.S. shipments of oil warm air furnaces increased 11.5%, to 21,904 units, compared to 19,653 units shipped during the same period in 2024. 

Central Air Conditioners and Air-Source Heat Pumps 
U.S. shipments of central air conditioners and air-source heat pumps totaled 528,980 units in September 2025, decreased 41.5% compared to 903,856 units shipped in September 2024. U.S. shipments of air conditioners decreased 49.4%, to 263,291 units, compared to 520,197 units shipped in September 2024. U.S. shipments of air-source heat pumps decreased 30.7%, to 265,689 units, compared to 383,659 shipped in September 2024.  

Year-to-date combined shipments of central air conditioners and air-source heat pumps decreased 14.3% to 6,548,942, compared to 7,639,648 units shipped during the same period in 2024. Year-to-date shipments of central air conditioners decreased 20.2%, to 3,532,005 units, compared to 4,423,927 units shipped during the same period in 2024. The year-to-date total for heat pump shipments decreased 6.2% to 3,016,937, compared to 3,215,721 units shipped during the same period in 2024.

Industry data is aggregated from the information supplied by AHRI member companies that participate in the Statistics Program and can be subject to revision. Published year-to-date data is inclusive of all revisions. No other AHRI data (e.g., by state or region) is available to the public other than that published. AHRI does not conduct any market forecasting and is not qualified to discuss market trends. Btu/h of 64.9 and below are for residential units; 65.0 and above for commercial. 
 
For previous monthly shipment releases and historical data, visit www.ahrinet.org/statistics.

Whether you require installation, repair, or maintenance, our technicians will assist you with top-quality service at any time of the day or night. Take comfort in knowing your indoor air quality is the best it can be with MOE heating & cooling services Ontario's solution for heating, air conditioning, and ventilation that’s cooler than the rest.
Contact us to schedule a visit. Our qualified team of technicians, are always ready to help you and guide you for heating and cooling issues. Weather you want to replace an old furnace or install a brand new air conditioner, we are here to help you. Our main office is at Kitchener but we can service most of Ontario's cities


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