Cooling Equipment Shipments Extend Growth Streak to Eight Months

Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps 

Shipments of central a/c units saw a massive jump in September, rising by 107,564 units compared to September 2025, whereas heat pumps remained relatively steady. This is the eighth consecutive month heat pumps have seen year-over-year increases, and the seventh consecutive month for a/c shipment growth. 

When comparing September 2026 to September 2025, the following bears out:      

• Air conditioners and heat pumps: 673,286 units, up 27.3% from 528,980 

• Air conditioners only: 370,855 units, up 40.9% from 263,291  

• Heat pumps only: 302,431 units, up 13.8% from 265,689 

The increases are encouraging, but the market hasn’t returned to its previous levels. September 2025 was a relatively weak month, as September 2024’s combined a/c and heat pump shipments were 903,856.  

Heat pumps account for 44.9% of combined cooling equipment shipments. Compare this to September 2025, when heat pumps were 50.2% of combined shipments. 

The following compares the year-to-date shipments for September compared to 2025:    

• Air conditioner units and air-source heat pumps: 7.06 million, up 7.9% from 6.55 million    

• Air conditioners only: 3.85 million, up 9.1% from 3.53 million    

• Heat pumps only: 3.21 million, up 6.4% from 3.02 million  

Manufacturers like Carrier have noted that the destocking that affected them last year is finished. That being the case, air conditioners are on the rise again, said Nate Adams, aka The House Whisperer. 

“Distributors stocked up on R-410A a/cs in 2024, then sold them down in 2025 and stopped ordering,” he said. “The federal heat pump tax credit also ended with 2025, which probably pulled some heat pump sales forward.” 

Warm Air Furnaces 

A six-month growth streak for oil furnaces has ended. Gas furnaces, having experienced increases in June and July, declined in August as well as September. 

The following are shipment totals for September 2026 compared to September 2025:  

• Gas warm-air furnaces: 279,746, down 0.4% from 281,001 

• Oil warm-air furnaces: 3,980, down 0.8% from 4,013 

Oil furnace shipments may have seen decreases due to the rising cost of heating oil, though year-to-date totals are up from September 2025. Gas furnace totals saw modest declines once again.  

Year-to-date shipping totals were as follows, compared to 2025:  

• Gas warm-air furnaces: 2.39 million, down 4.4% from 2.31 million     

• Oil warm-air furnaces: 24,763, up 12.6% from 19,653 

Residential Storage Water Heaters        

Gas and electric residential water heater shipments fell once again. Electric-powered units declined year over year for three consecutive months (July through September), while gas-powered units were down for the second month after seeing increases in June and July. 

• Residential gas storage water heaters: 327,407, down 3% from 337,447 

• Residential electric storage water heaters: 382,777, down 3.1% from 395,204 

Similar declines were seen in year-to-date totals for both types of water heaters:  

• Residential gas storage water heaters: 3.11 million, down 2.5% from 3.15 million    

• Residential electric storage water heaters: 3.63 million, down 4.6% from 3.85 million 

HEAT PUMP GROWTH: Heat pump shipments are far higher than they were in 2010, the earliest AHRI shipment data available. (Generative AI chart created by ChatGPT)

September Trends 

Looking back at 2010, the earliest year for AHRI’s reports, September heat pump shipments have more than doubled, increasing by 129.9%, and central a/cs increased 46.9% over the same period. Gas furnace shipments are virtually stagnant between those two years. This indicates contractors may wish to maintain expertise across various heating technologies. 

Gas and electric water heaters are up compared to 2010, with electric-powered units up by 38.2% and gas units up by 17.7%. 

Q3 Shipments 

Q3 2026 showed signs of improvement compared with Q3 2025, though shipments have not returned to previous levels seen in past years. 

Combined a/c and heat pump shipments were 19% higher in Q3 2026 than Q3 2025. Of the two, central a/cs saw greater gains, increasing by 25.3%, while heat pumps were up 12.2%. Central a/cs accounted for roughly 69% of the combined cooling category’s year-over-year shipments. 

Furnaces and water heaters were mixed results. While oil furnaces were up 15.9% from Q3 2025, gas furnaces were down 1%. Residential gas water heaters were stagnant, with a 0.1% increase, and electric water heaters were down 2.9%. 

As with the monthly shipments, though, the comparisons need to be put into context. When compared to Q3 2024, this year’s third-quarter shipments tell a different tale: 

Q3 RECOVERY: Q3 2026 shows better shipment numbers compared to Q3 2025, but has yet to recover to Q3 2024 levels.
(Generative AI chart created by ChatGPT)

In this case, the only product category with significant growth was oil furnaces, followed by a modest increase in gas water heater shipments. Every other category is down from 2024, most notably central a/c at 24.2%. 

Zooming out further, Q3 2026 shipments are relatively better than a decade ago. Most striking is the marked increase in heat pump shipments, up 62.5% from Q3 2016. The next highest increase was in electric water heaters at 16.2%. Central a/c shipments are lower by 8.5%. 

Over the full history of the AHRI shipment data, which goes back to 2010, combined cooling shipments are higher by 75.9% from Q3 2010. Broken down, central a/cs are up 41.8% from 2010, and heat pumps are up a massive 149.4%. This means the heat pump share rose from 31.7% to 44.9% in that period.