The Future of Supermarket Refrigeration Starts Now

“CO₂ refrigeration will likely have the greatest long-term impact,” said Ernest. “It is already moving from early adoption into broader fleet planning, especially for retailers that want a long-life refrigerant strategy that is future proof from EPA regulations. CO₂ has an ultra-low GWP, is nonflammable, and gives retailers a path that is less exposed to future HFC restrictions.” 

While CO₂ offers significant long-term advantages, Ernest noted that it requires a different approach to system design and operation. Features such as parallel compression, ejectors, adiabatic gas coolers, and heat reclaim are also becoming increasingly common in warmer climates, where they help improve system efficiency. 

Danfoss also expects CO₂ — and other natural refrigerants — to remain the industry’s most significant long-term refrigerant, said Dean Groff, natural refrigerant business development manager at Danfoss, because “it avoids risks tied to ozone depletion, GWP, PFAS restrictions, and flammability concerns associated with synthetic refrigerants.” He added that distributed and microdistributed architectures that reduce refrigerant charge and simplify service will also become more prevalent. 

CO₂ will continue to reshape the refrigeration equipment landscape, noted Justin Miles, senior market manager of food retail at Copeland, including technologies that will exploit the full sustainability potential of CO₂ such as heat reclaim. He added that mini-rack CO₂ systems will also give retailers a more flexible alternative to large, centralized CO₂ racks. 

“With the emergence of distributed CO₂ architectures (i.e., mini racks) and condensing units, retailers will have a greatly expanded range of options to support system retrofits, replacements and new construction,” said Miles. “For example, distributed CO₂ systems can support a phased conversion from a legacy HFC system to an ultra-low-GWP architecture. Many retailers have deployed this retrofit strategy to phase out portions of their existing system and install distributed CO₂ units, enabling them to convert their entire store refrigeration at their own pace.” 

Keith Wennik, business development manager at Dover Food Retail, a Hillphoenix company, agrees, noting, “Over the next five to 10 years, I think the biggest impact will come from systems becoming more modular, more compact, and more energy efficient. We’re moving toward more distributed architectures because they give retailers more flexibility and scalability. That matters a lot, especially as stores remodel in phases and try to minimize disruption.” He also believes CO₂ will become the refrigerant of choice for many food retailers. 

SUSTAINABLE SOLUTION: The Hillphoenix AdvansorFlexMax platform delivers high-capacity, sustainable CO₂ refrigeration for large-scale retail environments. (Courtesy of Hillphoenix)

While CO₂ is gaining in popularity, food retailers will likely pursue different refrigerant strategies depending on their priorities. Some will look beyond current regulations to meet broader sustainability goals, while others will focus on maintaining compliance and keeping stores operational, said Kyle Klahre, director of refrigeration at the engineering firm Cuhaci Peterson. As a result, he expects continued use of a variety of technologies, including transcritical CO₂ systems, cascade systems, self-contained hydrocarbons, HFC/HFO blends, and distributed architectures.  

“Refrigerant solutions are sure to be a mixed bag over the next five to 10 years,” he said. 

Smarter Systems 

While refrigerant technologies continue to evolve, AI is expected to play an increasingly important role in refrigeration system management, energy optimization, and maintenance, helping retailers address the megatrends and challenges impacting the food retail industry, said Miles. 

“AI-driven supervisory and facility management tools enable continuous optimization of refrigeration and site- and enterprise-wide energy management,” he said. He added that intelligent controls will also be essential in addressing the critical technician shortages and skills gaps that are impacting supermarket operators’ ability to start up, support, and maintain supermarket refrigeration systems.  

“Continued AI integration into these controls will help automate system performance, ultimately reducing the burden on technicians while improving system reliability,” he said. 

ANALYZING DATA: A contractor analyzes data from a CO2 refrigeration rack system with the Copeland E3 supervisory controller. (Courtesy of Copeland)

Wennik also expects AI to play an increasingly important role in servicing refrigeration equipment. 

“Smarter controls and remote diagnostics are becoming more important because service teams want actionable information before they even arrive onsite. Anything that saves time and reduces uncertainty has real value today,” he said. 

AI can help service teams identify issues faster, prioritize likely causes and improve troubleshooting, Wennik said. “That’s going to help retailers improve uptime, reduce service uncertainty and manage stores more proactively.” 

Because refrigeration is both energy intensive and mission critical, Ernest believes advanced controls, leak detection, remote monitoring, and predictive software will soon become standard features rather than premium options. 

“Refrigeration can account for up to 40% of a grocery store’s total energy use, so even small improvements in control logic, defrost management, floating head pressure, case performance, and setpoint discipline can matter across a fleet,” he said. As HFC supplies tighten and service costs rise, retailers will also increasingly expect systems that identify problems before product is lost or an after-hours service call is required. This is where predictive software comes in, he added. 

“The biggest gains come when the company servicing the equipment also writes the software,” said Ernest. “Our technicians generate the data that sharpens the software, and the same team that knows the site fixes the problem before product is lost. The retailer gets uptime and lower energy cost, while we gain efficiency and a higher first-time-fix rate. It’s one of the few cases where what benefits the customer benefits the provider in equal measure.” 

While many technologies are reshaping supermarket refrigeration, Ernest believes the industry’s future will not be driven by any single innovation.  

“It will come from the combination of lower-GWP refrigerants, lower-charge system architectures, smarter controls, and equipment that is easier to service in the field. The direction is clear: Retailers are moving toward systems that reduce refrigerant risk, energy use, and service complexity.”